Non è una guerra civile. Comunque la si pensi sulla natura delle proteste e sulle intenzioni dei manifestanti in Ucraina, alcuni dati di fatto sono incontestabili:

A small area in front of Dynamo stadium has become a place for a military operation. Never before in Ukraine were there clashes with police on the streets; never before were protesters killed. During the week of confrontation, four protesters have been killed, two of them shot dead on Hrushevskoho Street. About 40 journalists and hundreds of protesters have been injured. Four protesters lost an eye, and one had to have his arm amputated. As witnesses say, the riot police were shooting at protesters, especially journalists and medics, aiming at the head. The unrest started on January 19th, and since then on Hrushevskoho Street tires have been burning, Molotov cocktails are thrown and riot police stand their ground.

Se quella di Yanukovych non poteva essere considerata tecnicamente una dittatura prima dei recenti avvenimenti, certamente il comportamento delle forze di sicurezza in questi giorni richiama alla memoria scene degne di un regime più che di una democrazia, per quanto incerta e traballante. Il momento cruciale di questa svolta autoritaria può essere probabilmente individuato nelle misure adottate dal parlamento ucraino il 16 gennaio:

On January 16th, the Ukrainian parliament adopted laws that significantly limited the human rights and freedoms of citizens. These laws were passed in an unconstitutional manner, without prior discussion by the parliament and by hand voting with full violation of voting procedures. According to these draconian laws, any person in Ukraine could be arrested for “participation in peaceful gatherings wearing a helmet or uniform clothing” or sentenced and sent to prison for 15 years because of “mass disruptions”. Any protester from EuroMaidan, activist or journalist potentially could be arrested and sentenced.  Such inhumane laws led to public outrage.

Il problema politico, comunque, non risiede solo nell'azione governativa ma coinvolge anche l'assenza di leaders riconosciuti nel campo dell'opposizione:

Vitali Klitschko, head of the opposition party UDAR took on the role of conditional leader in the early days of the confrontation. However, people today feel frustration at the square more and more. They are tired of listening to the three opposition leaders who are unable to coordinate their actions and words. Some people are outraged that the activists on Hrushevskoho Street were called provocateurs by the opposition.

Il rifiuto del rimpasto dell'esecutivo offerto da Yanukovych indica che per i manifestanti la soluzione della crisi si deve trovare al di fuori degli attuali assetti istituzionali, il che significa soprattutto ritorno alla costituzione del 2004, cambio di governo e abolizione delle leggi speciali. Anche in periferia la situazione è piuttosto agitata e la classica e comoda divisione fra regioni pro-russe e anti-russe rischia di saltare:

In fact, the only place without active protests or mass attacks are Crimea, Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk. The government finally realised that their grip has begun to weaken.